Analysis of Information and Communications Technology's Economic Effects

Since May 2001, MPHPT has been holding the "Study Group on IT Effects upon the Economy" (Chair: Prof. MOTOMO Hitoshi, the Global Information and Telecommunication Studies: GITS, Waseda University), as a study group under the Director-General of Information and Communications Policy Bureau, in order to establish an economic theoretical foundation for taking ICT policy measures of the government, including analyses/assessment on ICT-related economic effects. Recently, the study group compiled its findings as a report on i) effects of the implementation of the "e-Japan Priority Policy Program" on the macroeconomy and ii) changes in the economic activities of people and companies brought about by the widespread use of ICT.

 

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Communications Industry Increases Revenues by 2.8% in FY2000
Facilities and Equipment Investment by Communications Industry Occupies 10.4% Share in All Industries

MPHPT compiled a survey, conducted in October 2001, on financial data of and on facilities and equipment investment by the communications industry (telecommunications and broadcasting businesses) for FY 2001. According to this survey, FY2001 planned revenues amount and facilities and equipment investment amount of the communications industry increased by 2.8% and 1.7%, respectively, in contrast to the decreasing trends of all industries.

Table 1	Revenues by communications business
Note:	The data on the all industries are based on Financial Statistics of Corporations by Industry and Business Outlook Survey , the Ministry of Finance.

Table 2	Revenues by Type I carriers
Note: 1. 2.	The planned figures of NTT are totals of the figures of NTT, NTT East, NTT West and NTT Communications. "NCCs" refers to Type I telecommunications carriers other than NTT.

Fig.1 Revenues of communications Industry

Table 3	Facilities and equipment investment amount by communications business
Note: .	The data on the all industries are based on Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises, Economic and Social Research Institute, the Cabinet Office.

Table 4	Facilities and equipment investment amount by Type I carriers
Note: 1. 2.	The planned figures of NTT are totals of those figures of NTT, NTT East, NTT West and NTT Communications. "NCCs" refers to Type I telecommunications carriers other than NTT.

Fig. 2 Ratio of facilities and equipment investment by communications Industry to all industries

Outline of the survey

1.	Revenue plans by the communications industry for FY2001 increased by 589.7 billion yen to 21,768.7 billion yen, a 2.8% increase compared to the actual revenue results in the previous fiscal year. Main factors for the growth are that the increase by the mobile communications sector surpassed the decrease by the long-distance and international communications sectors. Although the growth rate of 2.8% is lower than that of 7.5% in the previous fiscal year, it is still higher than that of - 3.3% for all industries.
2.	Planned facilities and equipment investment in FY 2000 by the communications industry, including telecommunications carriers and broadcasters, totaled 4,337.8 billion yen, a 1.7% increase from FY2000. Main factors for the growth are the increase in investment by the mobile communications sector. In comparison with the previous fiscal year, the growth rate of 1.7% is lower than that of 4.3%, however, it is still stable and higher than that of - 3.2% for all industries.
3.	Trends in purposes of facilities and equipment investment 1) Type I telecommunications carriers The ratios of purposes for "expanding service areas" and "commencing new services" are growing. 2) Type II telecommunications carriers As for Special Type II telecommunications carriers, in addition to "commencing new services," the ratio for "expanding service areas," under the declining trend in the past, showed an increase. For General Type II telecommunications carriers, the ratio for "commencing new services" is increasing, on the other hand, the ratio for "expanding service areas" decreasing. 3) Commercial broadcasters Investments for "renewal (replacing old equipment)" and "improving broadcast programming" occupy about 50% in all investments. 4) Cable TV operators The ratio for "commencing new services" is increasing, on the other hand, the ratio for "expanding service areas" decreasing.

[Businesses surveyed]
Businesses including telecommunications carriers and broadcasters. With regard to telecommunications carriers, all Type I and Special Type II carriers are included; as for General Type II carriers, carriers with capitalized at or more than 30 million yen are surveyed; for broadcasters, all commercial broadcasters are included; and for cable TV operators, operators, other than stock companies with equal to or more than 100,000 drop terminals, are excluded.

Financial survey

Category	Questionnaires sent	Collected questionnaires	Collection rate (%)
Type I telecommunications carriers	324	286	88.3
Type II telecommunications carriers	1,203	427	35.5
Commercial broadcasters	473	429	90.7
Cable TV operators	317	279	88.0
Total	2,317	1,421	61.3

Investment survey

Category	Questionnaires sent	Collected questionnaires	Collection rate (%)
Type I telecommunications carriers	324	285	88.0
Type II telecommunications carriers	1,203	435	36.2
Commercial broadcasters	473	328	90.5
Cable TV operators	317	279	88.0
Total	2,317	1,427	61.6

Notes: 1.	As regards broadcasters, the survey results include NHK (Nippon Hoso Kyokai, or Japan Broadcasting Corp.), which was not surveyed.
2.	As for figures in tables, totals and totaled figures of breakdowns may differ because rounded figures are used.
3.	Figures may be corrected after release.

 

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Communications Industry Increases Revenues by 4.3% in the II Quarter of FY2001

MPHPT released the survey on "overall results on Japan's communications industry (telecommunications carriers and broadcasters)" for the second quarter of FY2001 (July - September 2001) on 137 companies. This statistical survey was authorized by the Minister of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications [MPHPT].

Outline of the survey
[The Survey "overall results of Japan's communications industry"]
To grasp the business trend of communications industry (telecommunications and broadcasting industries), the monthly survey indicated below has been carried out on sales, etc. since April 1995.

1. Trend in Sales Growth
-The communications industry (telecommunications carriers and broadcasters) revenues in FY2000 second quarter (Q-II) grew by 4.3% over the same period in the previous fiscal year. Main factors for the growth are the increase in revenues of mobile communications carriers. The communications industry (telecommunications carriers and broadcasters) revenues have been increasing 26 quarters in succession since FY1995 Q-I (the first survey). On the contrary, the sales amount of all industries for the same period declined by 2.6%.

Table 1. Growth rates for revenues compared to the same period last year

Source:	"Financial Statement Statistics of Corporations by Industry (April-June 2000)," Ministry of Finance
Notes:	The data on the all industries are based on the "Financial Statement Statistics of Corporations by Industry," Ministry of Finance

 

Table 2. Revenues compared to the same period last year

Notes: 1.	Figures may not add up to total because of rounding data.
2.	Figures on all industries are based on the "Financial Statement Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Quarterly)," Ministry of Finance

Table 3. Sales Forecast Index

Notes: 1.	Basically, index is estimated at the end of the previous quarter for each. However, indexes for Q-III and Q-IV in FY2001 are estimated at the end of Q-II in FY2001.
2.	Figures of "all industries" are based on the "Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises," the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office.

Reference: Sales growth rates of each industry except "communications industry"
(Q-II in comparison with the same period last year)
Services: 25.9%, Publishing/Printing: 17.0%, Construction: 1.8%, Transportation equipment: 0.6%, Chemicals: 0.1%, Food: -2.2%, Power: -4.8%, Wholesale/Retail: -8.4%, Electrical machinery/Consumer electronics: -10.9%, General machinery: -11.1%, Metallic products: -12.8%, Real estate: -18.1%.

Fig.1 Growth rate for revenues compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year

2. Sales Forecasts
The Sales Forecast Index shows as follows:
-An upward tendency for sales growth of the "communications industry," except for the broadcasting industry, is seen for Q-III and Q-IV of FY2001 in the table below:
-A downward tendency for sales growth of "broadcasting business," is seen for Q-III and Q-IV of FY2001.

Ref: The Sales Forecast Index = "percentage of businesses forecasting increase in sales" - "percentage of businesses forecasting decrease in sales."

Fig. 2 Transition of sales forecast index (unit=point)

[Companies Surveyed]

Number of Companies Surveyed
Type I telecommunication carriers:	46
Type II telecommunication carriers:	20
Commercial broadcasters:	51
Cable TV operators:	20
Total:	137