February 10, 2005, Vol. 15, No. 21 ISSN 1349-7987

Japan-India Joint Statement in the ICT Field Signed

Bilateral Collaboration between Japan and India to Be Further Promoted

On January 18, 2005, Rep. ASO Taro, Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications held a meeting with Mr. Dayanidhi MARAN, Indian Minister of Communications and Information Technology, during his visit to Japan, exchanging opinions on further promotion of cooperation among the public and private sectors of the two countries in the ICT field. The two ministers adopted and signed a joint statement that agreed upon future bilateral cooperation between the two countries in the ICT field, including the promotion of the Asia Broadband Program.

Rep. ASO Taro, Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (left) meets Mr. Dayanidhi MARAN

[Outline]
Both Ministers exchanged opinions focusing on:

1) ICT policies of the two countries and trends in ICT industries as well as ICT use for the two countries;
2) Significance of the roles of Japan and India for encouraging the broadband use within the Asian region, including promotion of the Asia Broadband Program; and
3) Significance of the roles of ICT upon disasters, including tsunami, as well as prevention and mitigation of damages.
Subsequently, the two Ministers signed a joint statement including the following items for bilateral cooperation.

1) Implementation of policy dialogues in the ICT field and cooperation on ICT policy, laws and regulatory frameworks
2) Promotion of joint R&D, standardization, etc. on ubiquitous network services, network technologies, etc.
3) Promotion of private-sector exchanges in the ICT field

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FY2004 Survey on Supply-side and Demand-side Trends for Telecommunications Services Vol. 1 (Broadband, IP Telephony, Data Communications (Corporate Use))

Since FY2003, MIC has been conducting the "Competition Review in the Telecommunications Business Field." As part of the Competition Review, MIC has been compiling data collected from the supply side and demand side for analysis in addition to releasing the results thereof.
In FY2003, MIC compiled the FY2003 market competition status in the Internet access domain and corporate intranetwork domain. In FY2004, MIC will compile and release data on the mobile communications domain and various fields, including broadband, IP telephony and data communications (corporate use).
The data on broadband, IP telephony and data communications (corporate use) are as follows:

1. Broadband
The number of contracts for broadband circuits (total of ADSL, FTTH and cable Internet) was 17.63 million as of the end of September 2004. Taking a look at trend thereof, the number has been steadily increasing, showing a net increase of 5.21 million (a 42% increase) over the previous year.

Fig. 1 Trends in the number of contracts for broadband circuit services

Source: Survey based on the "FY2004 Details for Implementation of Competition Review in the Telecommunications Field"

Next, the number of contracts for ADSL circuits was 12.80 million as of the end of September 2004. For details, 4.74 million for NTT East Corp. and NTT West Corp. were comparable to 4.49 million for SOFTBANK BB Corp. The top 3 companies, SOFTBANK BB and NTT East/NTT West (counting these two companies as one) , account for a total share of 72%; the addition of the fourth- and the fifth-ranking companies result in this total share going up to 86% and 96%, respectively.

Fig. 2 Numbers of contracts for ADSL by carrier

Source: Survey based on the "FY2004 Details for Implementation of Competition Review in the Telecommunications Field"

2. IP Telephony
IP telephony services are being offered on broadband networks. Generally, "050" numbers IP telephony are being offered on ADSL etc. and "0AB-J" numbers IP telephony are on FTTH. The number of telecommunications numbers used for IP telephony services were 7.02 million as of the end of September 2004. Of those telecommunications numbers, the "050" numbers totaled 6.94 million and the "0AB-J" numbers totaled 80,000, indicating the ratio of "050" to "0AB-J" was 99:1. The ratio of contracts offered under carriers' own brands to those offered on a wholesale basis (under other carriers' brands) was 90:10 (including "050" and "0AB-J"); and even that for "050" was 91:9.

Fig. 3. Breakdown for telecommunications numbers used for IP telephony services, and for wholesale and retail

In accordance with the results of a questionnaire survey to IP telephony users, an answer "(speech quality is) comparable to or greater than that of cellular telephone services" occupies 88% of all replies. Then, an answer "comparable to or greater than that of subscriber telephone" occupies 39% of all replies. As shown in these results, a degree of customer satisfaction for IP telephony speech quality is quite high.

Fig. 4 Evaluation on IP telephony speech quality in use

Source: Survey based on the "FY2004 Details for Implementation of Competition Review in the Telecommunications Field"

Similarly, contrary to expectations, according to users' impressions upon actual use of IP telephony services, the reply "Inexpensive" accounts for more than 30%; "Settings and procedures are easy" totals nearly 30%. Although good reputations are many, contrary to expectations, "the number of parties to be called for free is a few" (36%) and "speech quality is bad" (33%) show higher ratios.

Fig. 5. Users' impressions upon actual use of IP telephony services

Source: Survey based on the "FY2004 Details for Implementation of Competition Review in the Telecommunications Field"

3. Data Communications (corporate use)
With respect to data communications (corporate use), the number of terminal circuits for so-called "new WAN services," including IP-VAN and wide-area Ethernet, is increasing. Those services were introduced in the market in the past years and have been expanding drastically.

Fig. 6 Trends in the number of terminal circuits for new WAN services

Source: Survey based on the "FY2004 Details for Implementation of Competition Review in the Telecommunications Field"

Estimate of Internet Traffic in Japan Compiled

In order to grasp the actual status of Internet traffic in Japan, MIC has estimated domestic Internet traffic with support from seven Internet service providers (ISPs) and those in academia. Results thereof are as follows:

1. Backgrounds and purposes

i) Since February 2004, MIC has been holding the "Study Group on Next-Generation IP-based Infrastructure" (Chair: Dr. SAITO Tadao, Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo) in order to consider how the next-generation IP-based infrastructure that could meet the sharp rise in traffic expected in the future should be reinforced. In June 2004, the Study Group compiled the first report.
ii) There is at present extremely little information on Internet traffic that can be grasped and only traffic information can be obtained from major Internet exchanges (IXs)*1. The first report points out that it is important to continuously grasp comprehensive traffic information over Internet backbone circuits.
iii) Thus, in order to grasp the actual status of Internet traffic in Japan, MIC has estimated Internet traffic with support from seven ISPs*2 and those in academia*3.

*1: Network service Provider Internet eXchange Point (NSPIXP), JaPan Internet eXchange (JPIX) and Japan Network Access Point (JPNAP)
*2: Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (IIJ), NTT Communications Corp., K-Opticom Corp., KDDI Corp., SOFTBANK BB Corp., Japan Telecom Co., Ltd. and PoweredCom, Inc.
*3: Associate Professor ESAKI Hiroshi at the University of Tokyo; Associate Professor KATO Akira at the University of Tokyo; CHO Kenjiro, IIJ; and FUKUDA Kensuke, NTT/JGN2

2. List of traffic information collected and tallied

A. Traffic by users

A1. Traffic of broadband users (DSL/FTTH)
A2. Traffic of other users (dial-up lines, leased lines, data centers)

B. Traffic exchanges between ISPs

B1. Traffic exchanges at major IXs
The shares of the seven ISPs were calculated and the total traffic volume in Japan was estimated through proportional allotments B1 and A1.
B2. Domestic traffic exchanges other than the major IXs
Through private peerings, transit and public peerings at other IXs
B3. Traffic exchanges abroad

C. Traffic of broadband users (A1) by prefecture

3. Summary results of calculation and estimation

i) Average traffic for broadband users has been continuously increasing. The total traffic of the seven ISPs exceeds 100 Gbps.
ii) The volume of outbound traffic (for ISPs; downloading traffic for users) is more than that of inbound traffic. Inbound traffic also exceeds 100 Gbps. Thus, it is difficult for ISPs to construct their networks on the assumptions that "general users use the Internet on mainly downloading data."
iii) Taking a look at trends by time zone, the lowest total traffic of the seven ISPs is about 80 Gbps. Thus, a considerable volume of traffic has been distributing regularly over the Internet.
iv) When looking into traffic exchanges between ISPs, the traffic volume of private peerings, etc. is more than that of traffic exchanges between major IXs. Traffic information at the IXs should not be construed as the total volume of Internet traffic in Japan.
v) Of traffic exchanges at major IXs, the share of the seven ISPs accounts for 41%. Based upon this 41% share, the total volume of broadband users in Japan can be estimated to 300Gbps or more on average.

4. Future efforts

i) Continuous grasp of traffic information
In order to grasp traffic trends, it is required to continuously grasp traffic information. MIC will biannually collect and calculate traffic information from now on. Traffic information for May and November will be collected and released in June and December of the same year, respectively.
In addition, with respect to matters of Internet traffic that cannot be grasped at present, MIC will try to grasp such matters through promotion of R&D.
ii) International harmonization
The significance of grasping traffic information on the Internet has grown internationally*4. The survey on traffic information across multiple ISPs is the world's first attempt, becoming a focus of international attention.
Taking into consideration traffic trends measurement in foreign countries, MIC will implement internationally harmonized efforts.

*4: International Workshop on Internet Measurement, Modeling and Analysis (January 9 through 12, 2005, Seoul, Korea)
http://srccs.snu.ac.kr/Workshop/05/frame1.htm

Grasping Total Volume of Internet Traffic in Japan

4. Future efforts 1) Continuous grasping of traffic information i) In order to grasp Internet traffic trends on a macroscopic basis, it is required to constantly grasp traffic information. ii) Acquiring consensus from ISPs for further cooperation to collecting traffic data, MIC will biannually collect and calculate traffic information from now on. Traffic information for May and November will be collected and released in June as well as December of the same year, respectively. 2) Expansion of ISPs cooperating upon collecting traffic data within this framework on future surveillance In order to improve accuracy of traffic information, it is effective to invite other ISPs that recognize the significance of collecting and disclosing traffic information, whose volumes of traffic are assumed to be enough to contribute to the result of the traffic measurement. 3) International harmonization The significance of grasping traffic information on the Internet has been growing up internationally. The survey on traffic information across multiple ISPs is an epochmaking attempt, thus becoming a focus of international attention. Grasping the current status and reporting thereon will contribute to grasping Internet traffic trends in Japan and decision-making for future policymaking, business deployment and investment at administrations, ISPs and system vendors both at home and abroad. Taking into consideration Internet traffic trends for measurement in foreign countries, MIC will implement international harmonization.