Communications Industry Forecasts of Business Conditions
--The Results (Prompt Report) of April 2006 Survey on "Overall Results of Japan's Communications Industry"--
- The sales forecast diffusion index (DI)*1 remains on a positive trend for the telecommunications business (with a majority of operators expecting an increase of sales). The commercial broadcasting business remains negative. The cable television industry continues to show a large-scale positive trend.
- The business conditions diffusion index (DI)*2 continues to show a positive trend for the telecommunications and cable television businesses (with a majority of operators expecting business conditions to improve). The commercial broadcasting business has improved, with a shift from a negative in the first quarter of FY2006 to a positive index in the second quarter.
Notes:
1. Sales forecast diffusion indices (DIs): the "percentage points of companies saying that their sales amounts are increasing compared to the previous quarter" minus the "percentage points of companies saying that their sales amounts are decreasing compared to the previous quarter."
2. Business conditions diffusion indices (DIs): the "percentage points of companies saying that business conditions are improving compared to the previous quarter" minus the "percentage points of companies saying that business conditions are worsening compared to the previous quarter."
Survey outline
The survey on the "overall result of Japan's communication industry" is designed to grasp the business trends in the communications industry (telecommunications and broadcasting). The survey has been carried out on sales, sales forecasts etc. since April 1995.
Businesses surveyed
The number of surveyed businesses for each type of business (telecommunications carriers and broadcasters) is calculated proportionally with the type's share in revenues for FY2004. To be statistically significant, the sampling number, as calculated from the number of parent populations in the communications industry, is set at 133. The businesses surveyed are sampled in descending order from the one with the largest sales down to the 133rd one.
Survey method
Conducted by questionnaires (mailing of survey card, responses by businesses via fax or the Internet).
Survey topics
Sales, financial position and business conditions forecasts (conducted only in July, October, January and April and reported in the following month, respectively*) and sales (every month).
* Reporting the following month of sales forecasts, etc., as of June, September, December, and March
Response rate
Sales forecasts
The sales forecast diffusion indices (DIs) in the first and second quarters of FY2006 indicate the following:
- Telecommunications carriers continue to indicate a positive trend (a majority of operators expecting an increase on sales), with figures of +14.7 for Q-I and +21.2 for Q-2 of FY2006.
- For commercial broadcasting, the trend remains negative for Q-I and Q-II of FY2006. with figures of -7.9 and -2.6 respectively- Cable casting continues to show a major upward trend, with figures of +26.7 for Q-I of FY2006 and +33.3 for Q-II of FY2006.
Table 1 Sales forecast diffusion indices
Fig.1 Trends in sales forecast diffusion index
Financial positions forecasts
The financial position indices for Q-I and Q-II of FY2006 are as follows:
- The telecommunications and commercial broadcasting businesses continue to retain a positive trend (their financial positions are in surplus).
- The cable television business has shifted from a positive trend in the previous period to a negative trend, with figures of 0.0 and -6.3 respectively.
Table 2 Financial position diffusion indices
Fig.2 Trends in financial position diffusion indices
Business conditions forecasts
The business survey indices for Q-I and Q-II of FY2006 are as follows:
- The telecommunications business continues to show an upward trend (a majority of companies anticipating an improvement in business), with figures of +11.8 for both quarters.
- The commercial broadcasting business is showing a negative for Q-I but a shift to positive trends for Q-II, with figures of -7.9 and +2.6 respectively.
- The cable television business continues to show an upward trend with Q-I at +18.8 and Q-II at +12.5.
Table 3 Indices for forecasts on business conditions
Fig.3 Trends in indices for forecasts on business conditions
Penetration Status of Cable TV Services
MIC has compiled the penetration status of cable TV services as of the end of March 2006. The number of household subscribers to cable TV operators having head-end facilities with permission (more than 501 terminals) that deliver original programming, is 19.13 million, showing the penetration rate of 38.0% to all households in Japan.
The number of head-end facilities with permission that deliver original programming is 696, and the number of cable TV operators having head-end facilities with permission that deliver original programming is 530.
Subscriber numbers and penetration trends for cable television subscribers using authorized facilities with head-end broadcasting
Trends in the number of authorized facilities with head-end broadcasting
Trends in the number of operators of authorized facilities with head-end broadcasting
Penetration Status of Cable TV Services
Number of cable television subscriber households
The number of subscriber households stood at 27.44 million, showing an increase of 5.4% year on year.
Trends in household subscriber numbers for head-end broadcasters and rebroadcasters
Trends in household subscriber numbers by scale
Number of cable TV facilities and operators
Number of facilities
The number of facilities stood at 74,940, an increase of 0.3% year on year.
Number of operators
The number of operators owning cable television facilities stood at 42,971, an increase of 0.4% year on year.
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