Announcement of Report on Economic Trends in the ICT Industry (Third Quarter of 2009)
Main points:
- Business confidence for both the electrical equipment industry and the ICT industry has continued on an upward trend for the second consecutive quarter.
- Production and inventories for the ICT manufacturing industry are showing improvement from the previous quarter.
- ICT-related consumer spending is showing its second consecutive quarter of growth.
- ICT-related consumer prices are continuing to tumble.
Outline of the report on economic trends in the ICT industry (third quarter (July to September) of 2009)
Business confidence has improved for the second consecutive quarter. Both production and inventories for ICT manufacturing industry have improved, and capital investment has also improved, with ICT-related consumer spending increasing. On the other hand ICT-related consumer prices continue to tumble.
Main points of trends in the ICT industry
| Trend | Comment | |
| Business Confidence |  |
Business confidence for electrical equipment manufacturing (producers of televisions, semiconductors and the like) was at -44%pt, an improvement over the -60%pt seen in the previous period, and the outlook is for further improvement. ICT-related (broadcasting business, telecommunications business and the like) business confidence showed a small improvement over last period (-24%pt), at -22%pt, and the outlook is for some further improvement. Communications improved to 9%pt from the previous period (3%pt) (see Figure 1). |
| State of Activity | |
The scale of reduction in inventories for the ICT manufacturing industry (digital home electronics, corporate use telecommunications related equipment and the like) shrank slightly from the previous period’s -27.2% to -26.1%. On the other hand, production showed a major shrinkage in the scale of reduction from the previous period’s -30.1% to -17.7% (see Figure 2). |
| Trends in Capital Investment | |
The scale of reduction in capital investment in ICT-related industries shrank from -23.3% in the previous period, to -17.7%. The level of contribution for investment in telephones and telephone base stations shrank from the previous period’s -7.6% to -1.8%. In addition, the level of contribution for semiconductor manufacturing equipment shrank from the previous period’s -8.0% to -6.0%. |
| Employment Trends |  |
Employment in ICT-related industries (telecommunications, information services and the like) was down by 80,000 people, showing a bigger drop than the 40,000 decrease seen in the previous period. ICT-related industries account for 5.1% of the total number of employed people, which is more or less unchanged from the previous period. |
| Trends in Consumption | |
Consumer spending on mobile telephones and Internet usage was up 3.5%, showing a greater level of increase than the previous period (+0.8%). Consumption of digital electrical equipment is growing (see Figure 4), with an increase to 8.4% of all consumer spending. |
| Trends in Pricing | |
In digital electrical equipment, only mobile telephones were up 11.6% year on year. Everything else was down, with the biggest decrease in personal computers (notebooks) at -51.8%. The overall drop was -27.9% year on year (see Figure 5). Communications and broadcasting subscription fees showed only a slight drop at only -0.6% year on year. |
| Trends in Exports and Imports | |
The value for exports of ICT-related products was -32.0%, an improvement on the previous period (-33.4%) but an eight consecutive quarter of decline. The sources of the drop continued to be semiconductors and the like (contribution -11.6%) and televisions and audio equipment and the like (contribution -10.6%). The value of imports was down -21.6%, showing a smaller drop than the previous period’s -25.2%. |
NB: Upward pointing arrows indicate “increase or upward” and downward pointing arrows indicate "decline or drop"
NB: New base as of December 2003. Figures for September 2009 were estimated as of the June survey
Data: Bank of Japan "Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan"
NB: Produced by calculating the primary coefficient from the production and inventory indices for mining and manufacturing.Raw materials for digital home electronics, ICT facilities etc. are the total of informatization-related production goods and car audio, communications related facilities used in corporations are the total of informatization capital assets and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, flat-panel display manufacturing equipment, semiconductor and IC measuring equipment, and home-use digital electronics is the total of ICT-related consumer goods and consumer electronics equipment other than car audio
Data: METI "Indices of Industrial Production"
NB: The bar chart shows the level of contribution of investment in ICT-related fields compared to the previous year. It is not the value of investments but the order value (consumer demand) that is the preceding index, and is value excluding orders in the electric power business where fluctuations are large. Investment in ICT-related fields are the total of business computers other than consumer use PCs, telephone handsets and telephone base station installations (communications equipment), and an semiconductor manufacturing equipment
Data: Cabinet Office "Orders Received for Machinery"
NB: The bar chart shows the level of contribution of consumer spending, compared to the previous year, on mobile telephones, Internet connection and digital home electronics.Consumer spending is the average amount spent per month by households of over two persons nationwide, including agricultural and fishing households. The proper names and contents for each series are: for mobile telephone and PHS communications charges, mobile telephone communications charges; for digital home electronics, the total of mobile telephones, other communications equipment, TVs, stereo sets, portable audio and video players, VCRs, personal computers, cameras and video cameras; for video games, newspapers, magazines and movies, the total of video games, media that uses neither audio or video, pre-recorded audio and video media, cinema and theater tickets and books and other printed publications. Fixed telephone charges, broadcasting reception charges and Internet connection charges are as stated
Data: MIC "Household Expenditure Survey"
Data: MIC "Consumer Price Index"
Status of Numbers of Subscribers to Telecommunications Services (As of End of September 2009)
The outline of the results compiled on this occasion is given below.
1. Subscription telephones and ISDN
The total number of subscription contracts as of the end of September 2009 for subscription telephones and ISDN was 45.323 million, an 8.2% year on year decrease, with the declining trend continuing.
2. Number of IP phone users
The number of IP phone users as of the end of September 2009 was 21.579 million. This marks a 13.3% increase from the same period of last year, with the upward trend continuing. The increase in the users of IP phones with the 0AB-J numbers was especially noticeable, with a year on year increase of 34.7%.
3. Mobile phones and PHS
The number of contracts for mobile phones and PHS as of the end of September 2009 totaled 114.069 million, showing a 4.2% increase year on year, with the steady upward trend continuing.
* Since the unshown portion of the values has been adjusted upward or downward, there may be cases where totals do not add up accurately.
1. Subscription telephones and ISDN
The total number of subscription contracts for subscription telephones and ISDN was 45.323 million as of the end of September 2009, a drop of 2.0% compared to the previous quarter (the end of June 2009). In addition, the year on year (compared to the end of September 2008) drop was 8.2%.
Note 1: Dry copper telephones: NTT East and West telephone service using metal circuits
Note 2: These subscription figures shown here do not include the number of subscribers to My Line.
Note 3: Parenthesis indicate rate of growth or decline year on year.
2. Number of IP phone users
There were 21.579 million IP phone users as of the end of September 2009, an increase of 3.2% over the figure at the end of the previous quarter (compared to the end of June 2009), and an increase of 13.3% year on year (compared to the end of September 2008), showing a continuing upward trend.
The number of users of 0AB-J IP phones was up 6.5% over the previous quarter (compared to the end of June 2009), and up 34.7% year on year (compared to the end of September 2008).
The number of 050 IP phone users was down 1.4% over the previous quarter (compared to the end of June 2009), and down 8.1% year on year (compared to the end of September 2008).
* This reflects the total number of 050 and 0AB-J telephone numbers utilized by final users, and is not a rigorously accurate number of subscriptions.
3. Mobile phones and PHS
The number of contracts for mobile phones and PHS totaled 114.069 million as of the end of September 2009, an increase of 4.2% year on year (compared to the end of September 2008). Penetration among the population stood at 89.3%.*
The number of mobile phone subscription contracts stood at 109.634 million and the number of PHS subscription contracts was 4.435 million. In addition, the number of third-generation mobile phone subscription contracts stood at 104.343 million, accounting for 95.2% of the total.
* The population used to calculate the penetration rate in the population uses the figures for nationwide population count (complete tabulation: 127.767994 million) in the 2005 Population Census announced by Statistics Bureau, MIC in October 2005.
(Reference)
Number of subscribers for IP connection services from mobile terminals (end of September 2009): 92.008 million contracts*
(Proportion to total of mobile phone contracts: 83.9%)
(* Total of iMode, EZweb,Yahoo! mobile and EMnet)